Appropriateness and integrity in the use of government statistics
March 11th, 2010 | 
Author: By Edmund Khor
In the recent Budget speech 2010, the Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam claimed that the lax foreign workers policy had reduced unemployment and raised wages for Singaporeans. He said the huge influx of foreign workers had enabled the median income per household member to rise significantly for the four years from 2005 to 2008. Median income grew by 20%, adjusted for inflation.
Minister Tharman added that lower income households also saw their incomes rise which took place over the three years from 2006 to 2008 – when their incomes grew by about 16% in real terms. They ended with total growth of incomes of about 7% in real terms over the 10 year period from 2000 to 2009.
Based on the simple observation that “the three years from 2006 to 2008 in which wages showed healthy growth for our lower income families corresponded to the period when the foreign workforce was growing most rapidly”, the Finance Minister claimed that the foreign workers policy had raised wages for Singaporeans.
This brings to mind the Progress Report of the Ministerial Committee on Low Wage Workers released in June 2009. In that report, the high-level committee claimed that low wage workers have seen increase in their wages. It suggested that monthly wage for the 20th percentile employed resident had seen a 9.2% increase in monthly wage from $1,200 in 2006 to $1,310 in 2008.
However, the claim was soundly debunked by netcitizens[1]. The reported monthly wages were in nominal terms, i.e. they were not adjusted for increases in the prices of goods and services over the two year period. Using the inflation rate of 9.5% experienced by the lowest 20% income group, low wage workers were in fact worse off in real income terms.
One cannot help but notice the two different statistics used in measuring the income of Singaporean workers in the two government reports. It is most puzzling why the Finance Minister chose to use average income per (working and non-working) household member as a proxy for wages for working Singaporeans when there are far more appropriate statistical data available.
Even if we were to choose to give Minister Tharman the benefit of the doubt, the statistics used could not convince that there is definite rise in the living standards of the median Singaporean citizen. Two points were aptly provided by the Reform Party in its Response to the Singapore Budget, 2010[2].
Firstly, the definition of residents includes PRs and not just citizens though the minister talked about Singaporean households. Over the past decade the resident population grew by 15% while the resident labour force grew by approximately 25%. This was undoubtedly due to the surge in new citizens and PRs as a result of the government’s liberal immigration policies. The majority of these new residents did not have dependents (hence the much faster rise in the resident labour force than the resident population) and all of them would have had jobs so the proportion of working adults in the average resident household would have risen. As a result we would have seen an increase in real median income per household member without any real increase in the median incomes of Singaporean citizens.
Secondly, the Minister’s figure excludes households consisting solely of non-working persons over 60. If their incomes fell during this period or their numbers increased as a proportion of total households), due not only to the aging population but also because of the diminished employment opportunities for senior citizens as a result of the government’s open-door foreign worker policy, then excluding this group would distort the figure for median income per household member and make it look better than it really is.
Finally, Correlation does not imply causation. It is spurious to suggest the high growth in foreign labour force increased the wages of Singaporeans simply from the correlation between the two variables. As we know, our exported-orientated economy is highly leveraged to the global economic environment. The exogenous factor we all know is the higher external demand which resulted in increased demand for labour resources in the Singapore economy. Wage increases would have been higher had it not for the lax foreign labour policy which capped the wages of lower-end and middle-level Singaporean workers.
In the progress report of the Ministerial Committee on Low Wage Workers mentioned earlier, it glaringly failed to take into account the impact inflation on nominal earnings. This and the inappropriate statistics used in the Budget speech call into some serious questions on the misleading use of government statistics, which may misrepresent the situation on the ground to Singaporeans.
The Chief Statistician and the Singapore Department of Statistics, as our national statistical authority, must be allowed to adhere to their professional ethics and to voice out against any misrepresentation from the inappropriate use of statistical data by government leaders for political gains. This will prevent further undermine in the confidence of Singaporeans in our government statistical data.
——————————————————————————–
[1] see http://www.temasekreview.com/2009/06/10/are-the-low-wage-workers-really-better-off/
Other articles by Edmund Khor:
1. Are low wage workers really better off?
Posted in 27 Responses to “Appropriateness and integrity in the use of government statistics”
Loading ...
Alex Tan Allan Ooi AWARE Chee Soon Juan Chiam See Tong Claire Lee David Widjaja DBS Dr Allan Ooi Dr Silviu Ionescu Dr Vivian Balakrishnan Foyce Le Xuan highnote5 Hong Lim Park Jack Lin Xinli Jack Neo Jack Neo affair Jack Neo scandal Josie Lau Josie Lau Meng Lee Lee Kuan Yew Lehman brothers Lighthouse Evangelism MAS minibonds Miss Singapore World NTU stabbing PAP Pastor Rony Tan Ris Low Romanian diplomat in hit-and-run Rony Tan S-League silviu ionescu Singapore Singapore 2010 Youth Olympic Games Tan Kin Lian Thio Su Mien Tiger Woods affair Tong Kok Wai Top 8 Vivian Balakrishnan Wendy Chong Y O G Youth Olympic Games
WP Cumulus Flash tag cloud by Roy Tanck and Luke Morton requires Flash Player 9 or better.
Professional ethics of our dept of statistics my ass!
Even the former Chief Statistician can jump to the defense of PAP by urging that Singapore can still accommodate more foreigners, and he also strongly urged that HDB flats be rented at lower prices to these foreigners.
http://www.temasekreview.com/2010/02/07/former-singapore-chief-statistician-paul-cheung-singapore-can-still-accommodate-more-people/
Actually they still have not defined what words like “productivity” and “foreign talent” means.
This is taken from the following article:
http://www.asiaone.com/Business/My+Money/Property/Story/A1Story20090928-170439.html, published 2 Oct 2009
“A simple analysis shows this: A new four-room flat in 2000 cost about $150,000. Today, a new four-roomer averages $265,000, based on HDB figures. The price increase is roughly 77 per cent.
In comparison, the Department of Statistics put the median income for a resident household at $3,640 in 2000. Last year, this was $4,950, roughly a 36 per cent increase.
So yes, buyers are right: HDB flats have become more expensive, rising quicker than wages.”
*****
To all young couples planning to buy new homes, and to all parents with kids who will enter the housing market one day, this development represents a “definite rise” in living standards over the past decade?
Typical pappie tactic, trying to hoodwink us. Vote them all out in the next election!
Any such detailed countering of statistics put up by the ruling party should actually be argued in Parliament by more credible Opposition MPs but todate, we did not see such things occuring yet unfortunately. So the Opposition has much to do to mount a more credible face if the political landscape of Singapore has to change.
I’m seething…and VERY tempted to buy a bloody overpriced flat in Ten penis just so I can throw my protest vote against you-know-who
Speaking of statistics, I find the recent poll conducted on the left “Are you relieved that Lee Kuan Yew did not suffer a massive heart attack?” a little inacurate. In the poll you gave two options
- Relieved: Singapore cannot do without him
- Disappointed: I can’t wait to see him go!
I can think of a third option.
- Relieved. Now it’s high time he ought to step down.
What we have here are two extreme views, but what about people who want him to retire but not see him go? This does not represent the general views of netizens, instead they are forced to choose between two extreme ends. Wonder why the former option yields 2/3 of the later?
Just my 2 cents worth.
PAPaya , still sleeping ,
counting $$$ with 8.8% increase salary .
No need to mention salary increase by how many %.
Just compare basic need’s item with our neighbor Malaysia , Indonesia.
Below are MANSLOW HIERARCHY of BASIC NEEDS
Transport cost Up %
Food cost up %
Education cost up %
Electricity cost up%
Gas up %
Petrol cost up %
Water cost up %
Housing cost
Without being paid 13k per month ,
Result : Singapore has the worst purchasing power year on year
PAPaya wake up from your dream , Singaporean NOT STUPID !!
Tharman : “This is a system that relies on trust in the individuals who are in charge …”
Extracted from http://geraldgiam.sg/2009/02/trust-but-verify/
But when they use statistics in such a manner, can they really expect the people to “trust” them?
This is not the first time that such inaccuracies has been detected in Parliament.
It is most frustrating to see these people used statistics to support their “claim” because they always choose the spectrum. Most time, they don’t use the same period and worse still, different govt agencies quote differently.
Surely, our highly productive PMO with so many highly paid ministers, and perm secs, could come up with a standardized spectrum for all govt agencies to use ? Be it last 3 yrs or last 5 or 10 yrs.
Are changes to policies coincidentally when election is around the corner prove that the policies were all flawless?
i mean changes at this time is coincidental that the election is also around the corner. Pure coincidence.
After election surely no more changes?
Oftentimes,STATISTICS are made use of by people who are full of antics!
Oi! Tharman are you BLIND!
Do you need another set of glasses, that add up to 6 eyes.
Oi! Tharman are you BLIND!
Do you need another set of glasses, that add up to 6 eyes.
Or maybe 2 set of glasses, that makes 8 eyes.
2 eyes in front, 2 eyes behind, 2 eyes on your right and 2 eyes on you left.
The px for a future 4 room HDB flat in Commonwealth is about $450k, whilst the 5 room HDB flat is about $520-550k!
We are talking about PUBLIC HOUSING here!!!
No wonder my cousin’s Dutch husband complained that the px is simply ridiculous!!!
the department of statistics website has statistics for many years.
such as how many new citizens there were etc.
they do not, however, tell you where some of the new PRs etc come from. you have to do your own calculations.
for example, around 2008 we imported about 40000 chinese from china, and 40000 indians (probably including bangladeshi) from indian subcontinent. you’ll need to do some additions / subtractions to get to this figure.
e.g. we know the racial distribution numbers for citizens, PRs etc. we see how much it changed from one year to the next – how much it increased.
we also know what is the birthrate of the locals. we can calculate how many were born.
if the numbers of chinese went up by, say, 70000 in one year, but only 30000 were born, the other 40000 that year wasn’t manufactured in Tuas. it probably came from somewhere further north.
but it will save us some effort if they were to state the numbers outright. but then there are always usefulness in hiding some numbers from some people such as the public.
Govt fudging statistics and a highly compliant press equal a fooled population.
The MIND-BOGGLING QUOTES OF LKY… By TIME-LINE… And You WILL KNOW Why he does What he does With TOTAL Disregard for those who DIFFER From “HIM” as ‘SUPREMO’… And so too… Is he a kind man OR a man in ‘kind’ as in one Of a kind?,,,
1. 1956 – On Making Government IMMUNE And INDEMNIFIED…
“Repression, Sir is a habit that grows. I am told it is like making love – it is always easier the second time! The first time there may be pangs of conscience, a sense of guilt. But once embarked on this course with constant repetition you get more and more brazen in the attack. All you have to do is to dissolve organizations and societies and banish and detain the key political workers in these societies. Then miraculously everything is tranquil on the surface. Then an intimidated press and the government-controlled radio together can regularly sing your praises, and slowly and steadily the people are made to forget the evil things that have already been done, or if these things are referred to again they’re conveniently distorted and distorted with impunity, because there will be no opposition to contradict.” – Lee Kuan Yew as an opposition PAP member speaking to David Marshall, Singapore Legislative Assembly, Debates, 4 October 1956
2. 1959 – On ST being UNFAIR to HIM Ass Opposition… And he won that first GE with Resounding victory of over 85%!!!
“I pointed to an article with bold headlines reporting that the police had refused to allow the PAP to hold a rally at Empress Place, and then to the last paragraph where in small type it added the meeting would take place where we were now. I compared this with a prominent report about an SPA rally. This was flagrant bias.” – Lee Kuan Yew complaining about the Straits Times in 1959.
3. 1962 – 3 yrs later On Him Being Supreme in Governance…
“If I were in authority in Singapore indefinitely without having to ask those who are governed whether they like what is being done, then I would not have the slightest doubt that I could govern much more effectively in their interests.” – Lee Kuan Yew, 1962
4. 1982 – 20 yrs later ON His SUPREMACY Without Apology…
“I make no apologies that the PAP is the Government and the Government is the PAP.” – Lee Kuan Yew, 1982, Petir
5. 1987 – 5 yrs later On His Micro Managing OUR Private Lives…
“I am often accused of interfering in the private lives of citizens. Yes, if I did not, had I not done that, we wouldn’t be here today. And I say without the slightest remorse, that we wouldn’t be here, we would not have made economic progress, if we had not intervened on very personal matters – who your neighbour is, how you live, the noise you make, how you spit, or what language you use. We decide what is right. Never mind what the people think.” – Lee Kuan Yew, Straits Times, 20 April 1987
6. 1997 – 10 yrs later On those who Politically Oppose him…
“If you are a troublemaker… it’s our job to politically destroy you. Put it this way. As long as JB Jeyaratnam for what he stands for – a thoroughly destructive force – we will knock him. Everybody knows that in my bag I have a hatchet, and a very sharp one. You take me on, I take my hatchet, we meet in the cul-de-sac.” – Lee Kuan Yew, The Man And His Ideas, 1997
7. 2004 – On His Pragmatism of The Communistic Kind on LIVES…
“If I have to shoot 200,000 students to save China from another 100 years of disorder, so be it.” – Lee Kuan Yew endorsing the Tiananmen massacre, Straits Times, 17 August 2004
Recently the ministers’ wages were increased, and at the same time there were a series of gaffes (eg. Lim Swee Say, Ong Ah Heng, Koo Tsai Kee etc.)
So I can conclude that there is a inverse correlation between increasing ministerial wages and their level of stupidity (ie. higher wages = increased stupidity). Therefore in order to make them smarter and better leaders we should decrease their pay, makes sense?
you think this is outrageous?
We have the highest GDP:public ratio of 100%. In other words, even if we use all our GDP to pay our debt, it will not cover the debt in a year.
That is why the govt is trying to grow the economy at all cost.
if they had been responsible, how did we end up with such a high public debt ratio?
The worse thing is that they charge us a high fee for it.
Lies, damn lies and statistics!
Day by day, we see the truth about many of this country’s institutions and agencies.
They are a sorry excuse and a shameful lot.
I have long ago stopped believing what the government has to say.
They have been wrong before and they are absolutely wrong this time about importing so many foreign “talents”.
One day, these Ah Tiongs will bite the hand the feeds it with such verocity, it will completely cripple the PAP.
Mark my words.
But let’s not wait till decades to come.
Vote the PAP out.
Reduce their presence in Parliament to close to 50%.
That should send a clear and distinct signal to these overpaid MPs that they should work for the people of Singapore.
Interesting note … “Correlation does not imply causation.” I have an example, every morning I go to toilet; the sun rises every morning. Conclusion, it is the rising sun that cause me to go to toilet. Logical?
not just only boot them out. but also makes them to apologise on the national stage televised nationally to all singaporeans for all the damages all these pappies has done to us.
we demand that.
I don’t mind if the government fudges, bends and distorts statistics to prove their point. That’s what politicians, liars and crooks do anyway. I get worried when they really believe the lies that they have created, then we are really in trouble. Do they really believe
a. That Singaporeans are better off now with the high prices of HDB flats?
b. Are they convinced that the sudden and large import of foreign workers hasn’t depressed wages?
c. That the investment record and policies of GIC and TH are excellent and should continue as per normal?
d. That their policy on getting feedback is to turn a deaf ear?
e. That they have nothing to discuss and debate in parliament but to praise each other?
All the MPs and ministers do in Parliament is to read from prepared texts. There is no passion in their deliverance. It is like a bunch of kids on a picnic, knowing that the budget debate is a pain to be tolerated for the sake of the MP allowance. Even LKY doesn’t bother to be present, going at the state’s expense to spend spring in the UK.
Frankly, you can see more debate in China’s version of its parliamentary sitting. What we have in Singapore is a sorry sample of parliamentary rubber stamping of brainless and gutless idiots masquerading as leaders.
agree with the writer that correlation doesn’t equate to causation. which is why i am particularly irked whenever TR trots out that graph from which they have been incessantly using to try to convince people that the rise in foreigners is the cause of falling labour productivity.
thankfully, there are people like Edmund Khor who know that statistics and numbers can be massaged. so. TR readers, when you read people using statistics, rankings, numbers to support a claim, stop and ask yourself, where did those numbers come from, what do those numbers actually mean, how were they derived. the same sceptism applies when we read things trotted out by the government, by TR or by anyone.
only by having such healthy intellectual sceptism can we EVER hope to have a true, vibrant democracy.
Half True facts! Pay raise only THEM! Not US! They will do whatever they want to stay in power. Vote Opposition! Let your voice be heard!