THE TEMASEK REVIEW

Elfred:

That’s the political leader… It must require many years of experience to say those things.

Hsien Tau and Fear of Ghost and etc, see… this is what politics is all about… Not some useless ‘fights’ and what rounds of wins…

I have hoped that he doesn’t lend weigh… it’ a move resulting in… I mean what does MM expect to achieve? (???)

MenInBlue:

“If not, the Barisan Sosialis will win and you will have a bleak future.” <- sweeping statement that doesn't apply now. If MBT uses the same statement for his contesters, i think he will lose.

Overall, increasing HDB prices is just a way of creating wealth within their ministries.
1. Import more PRs
2. Build less HDBs
3. 1+2 = resale HDB prices go up
4. Flats direct from HDB prices is pecked against resale prices and hence prices go up.
5. 1+2+3+4 = HDB and HDB Resale flat prices go up together (1st Win for HDB)
6. Property tax for HDB is pecked against HDB Prices (remember now 3 roomers have to pay more than $70/annum) which will increase too (2nd Win for IRA)

So you see, its a double win for government… What do citizens gain?
1. Smaller HDB flats (93-96 sqm now vs 96-104sqm 20 years back)
2. More expensive flats ($320k now vs $52k) (and just to note, a man earning $800/month can support a house of 3 and a flat vs a man earning $3k/month must have earning wife to support the same flat)
3. Higher property tax
4. Longer wait for a reasonable flat (paying $300k for a flat requires housing of certain expectations just like tendering billion dollar IR project requires contractor standards…)
5. To get squeezed on public transport to the extend of not being able to board at all and at the same time ERP increases to discourage driving (best way to work is to walk..)

Solution? Balanced foreign import, build housing to meet demands. I don't mind earning $800 per month if flats cost $52k and can feed the whole family… think about it!

bornloser:

I am amazed that inspite of the millions of dollars we pay to the PAP ministers they continue with their unidirectional thinking. Of course, we know we have limited land resources besides other resources. It makes no sense therefore that we increased our population by some 40% in the short span of a few years. Don’t they see the effect on prices especially of property and on our incomes?
Any idiot would have known that property prices would rocket up and our income will have to go down; a double whammy for the people of Singapore. Economic growth by importing foreign labour is at a great sacrifice by the true blue Singaporeans. We never used to see old bent over Singaporeans clearing tables at food centers; now they are a standard feature of food centers. Even so, we see them slowly being displaced by foreign workers.
Yet we advised the Japanese to follow our policy of importing foreign workers. Japan is equally land scarce. Their already high property prices will inevitably skyrocket and there will be many ‘Geylangs’ all over Japan!
The Japanese strategy is better. They export their factories to these low cost countries and have the benefit of low cost labour without disturbing the equilibrium of their property prices. So who are we to teach them?
This government needs to do better, much better and not keep patting themselves on each other’s back. Many of its policies over the past have been shot gun solutions to long term problems. Seemingly good solutions in the short term turn out to have a huge economic and social cost in the longer term.
And they have failed at a cost to us citizens. Unfortunately for them, they will face a torrent of questions and anti-PAP sentiment in the next election.

Time for Change:

This is madness. Without many opposition in parliament, these guys can say or do anything they want. And we are powerless.

Time for Change.

smallyfly:

Aiyoh! Excuse me, with $3.something millions of dollars of annual remuneration package at the age of 85, doing nothing besides than talking rock and delivering utterances to pre-eminent world leaders and prominent high-net-worth businessmen worldwide, oh, last but not least, doing “WRONG” forecast, what is not affordable to this DOM?

Do not forget plus his son as the highest paid pm in this world and his daughter-in-law as the ceo of the largest g-owned company in Singapore, you must be a nut to talk about “unaffordable public-housing” to him, of course public-housings are affordable if you include spending all your retire-saving-fund to service the housing loan for 30 years or more, eating daily meals with white-bread and plain-water, no outing for your children and no celebration for festive occasions!!! The list of deprivations of basic necessities and enjoyments can go on and on……..

It does not matter whether there is profuse influx of fts or prs taking away jobs, public housings, medical benefits, school placement for children and girls or boys for marriage belonging to true-blue-citizens, just bear with them(the miw, fts, and prs) and you will face the music after the next GE for another five-solid-year!!! He and his cronies will collect another five-solid-year of annual million-dollar-salary!!!! The mp’s ##part-time salary—so-call allowances##, earning more than a full-time qualified-accountant, engineer, government senior officer, etc.

With the above mentioned solid evidences, will you please cease talking about affordability of public-housing to this DOM, save your breath to vote for opposition in the next GE to counter-balance the miw, my dear! It is an impasse! What a dilemma and an irony!

Bird Talk:

HONGKONG 7 Dec 09: Hong Kong’s government is “very concerned” about the risk of an asset bubble developing although a bubble is not apparent yet, Financial Secretary John Tsang told legislators on Monday, referring to a surge in the city’s property prices this year.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/hong-kong-worried-about-real-estate-bubble-20091207-keki.html

China property is forming a big bubble.

In Singapore, MM is still expecting HDB prices to raise further and affordable.

astrology:

My job is just forecasting. I predicted end 2007 that the US crisis would last only 3 months but its now more than 24 months (I m only 21 months off). This time, I predicted Singapore economy growth next year to be 3% but MAS last week indicated 5.5%. Again I am very close.
Now, I think HDB prices will continue to go higher. Please be patient. Surely, it will.

His same "old swan song" before GE comes...:

For him less than 3 months really to own an HDB 5-flat! Dear HDB Leasee, you forgot he bonus as MM, GIC gaji (pay) as chairman + bonus + stock options (anyone know?)…

And so it was like 11+ Millions some 3 years ago! What about Wing Tai & Wingland incomes too? What about… mmm… am scratching me head to list others… but then better not or get ’shot’ in the head or chest?

Born Loser:

It’s the same old story again, repeated ad nauseam.
First, it is the claim that since they solved some problems in the past it gives them the right to perpetual rulership. Of course, conveniently neglecting to say that they also created some major problems along the way.
Then the wagging finger and the prediction of doom. If you don’t elect us, it will be the end of the world. The economy will tank. The value of your property will plummet. Your wives and daughters will be maids. If you vote for us, then a wonderful golden era awaits you. Yeah, right!
Then the half truths. Prices of HDB flats will rise if the economy continues to grow. Hello, I thought we had a recession this past year and yet the prices of HDB apartments have risen. How come? They rose because the new citizens and PRs are raising the demand for HDB flats. If LKY is right then the prices of HDB flats should have dropped in line with the economic recession.
Then again the verbal sleight of hand. “We could easily have sold the plot….so we are sharing the growth of the city with the people..” If the plot had been sold, wouldn’t the money still be with the people, aren’t the people the eventual owners of whatever money raised. Why does LKY see a separation between the party that receives the proceeds of the sale and the people of Singapore? By constructing the Pinnacle@Duxton, doesn’t those huge profits now go to the HDB and the lucky 1,848 flat owners?
Then the untruths. “A home owning society gives a sense of rootedness in Singapore and ownership means nationhood”. If it is true then we should give every new citizen or PR an apartment. If it is true then countries where renting is a common practice must be rife with rootlessness and devoid of nationhood. Rootlessness is not just resolved by ownership of property. It is a simplistic notion to justify the indirect taxation that the Government levies on its citizens. Home ownership in Singapore is a punishing burden. It takes a lifetime to pay for the apartment and in the end when we retire we have no cash to live on. Yes you can sell the apartment, but where do you live? A three-room flat in Queenstown costs $6,200 in 1964 but $200,000 today. Have wages risen by 32 times? The enormous profits raised by HDB in erroneous accounting have been frittered away in useless investments overseas.
Singaporeans, wake up! The wayang has to stop.

jiangbao:

He said affordable… he did not say whose perspective.

so technically..

fpc:

//Elfred

what’s your point?

How is 500K home affordable?

I won’t be surprised seeing people jumping down the building in years to come.

fpc:

economy grow but most people lag behind.

How can these flats be affordable?

sicktothebones:

If HDB prices go up in tandem with economy and real market forces I have nothing to say. But the prices shoot up due to failure to plan for the massive influx of foreigners and this cash over valuation going over the moon. The real wages do not keep up with shooting stars HDB prices – inflated by influx of PR at Sporeans’ expense.
MM Lee can’t be unaware of this.

MenInBlue:

The word “affordable” has become the convenient word to use for papa… MBT uses it, MM uses it…

To them, its buying a $300k item using their $200k salary and of course it is affordable to them.

Our spending power has gone down but their spending power remains in excess.

Let me give an example of how these idiots have the perception that people have the “power” to buy HDB flats.
MP earns: $1mil/yr = $83,333/mth ($66,666k take home)
MP spends: $1k on household/bills per mth (minus luxury items/car)
MP left with: $65,666/mth (HDB is incredibly affordable and can even pay for a $2mil landed in slightly more than 2 year’s time)

Average SGrean earn: $31,200/yr = $2,600/mth (take home $2080)(wow…. less than half.. also graduate from uni but earn about 3% of their pay…)
Average SGrean spend: $1k on household/bills per mth (no money for luxury items/car)
Average SGrean left with: $1080/mth (less than 2% of their spending power!)

If we measure by percentage of spending power:
MP: $65,666/$66,666 = 98.5% of their take home salary
Average SGrean: $1080/$2080 = 51.9% of their take home salary

How can it not be affordable to them?

Tim:

As a young Singaporean who used to think great things of MM Lee. Nowadays, I feel that the once great man is truly just trying to hang on to his laurels as best he can. Probably to ensure that people are grateful to him for ‘all’ he has acomplished in his lifetime. And honestly, as much hate as many people may have for him, he has done a lot.

The real problem I feel may be this whole idea of who truly “deserves” power. In MM Lee’s eyes, the whole concept of the PAP remaining in power is preferable becasue he started the party and did great things for Singapore. He and the PAP are therefore deserving of the power. This may not be true if we consider all the misdeeds they have performed for the benefit of Singapore’s economy and the wealth of the Government and essentially the wealth of the Lee family. What happens here is a vast intertwining of family interests, economic interests, the sheer pride of our leaders who are all too accustomed to a lack of dissenting opinions and the PAP’s preference that they stay in power to preserve all this.

I for one do not agree that just becasue MM Lee has made some terrible mistakes in his political career that he should be discredited as a great man. He did wonders for Singapore undoubtedly. I think the reason most of us are angry is that dear MM himself is unwilling to accept this fact: A great man’s party need not stay in power for him to remain a great man.

The problems of the people are thus brushed aside frequently by the state media with distractions such as how great Singapore is and how bad it could have been if not for the PAP. However unproductive this is.

I say give MM Lee a break. He is but an old man. It is the new generation of leaders, the ones likely to take over when he leaves, that we need to worry about. They may have been too thoroughly submissive to MM Lee’s style of government that they could possibly have illusions of grandeur and think they’re the second comming of the man who created modern Singapore. What we need is a few credible opposition leaders and a few benevolent and forward thinking PAP leaders to lead Singapore in the future to take the views of the average Joe seriously as well and stop all this condescending talk!

Richard Tan:

I think the property market other country mentioned are the Private Section Market like Condominium and Landed Property and not the Public Housing, that are suppose to let the lower income group to have a shether over their head. So don’t put it together to evaluate the property market and the economy.

qussl3:

@Tim on Mon, 14th Dec 2009 4:59 pm

Yours is a far more level headed viewpoint, but consider this.

The question to ask is have we passed the point of no return?

As you have pointed out due to the enmeshed nature of our govt – the fates of certain individuals, political parties, companies… etc are intertwined.

You have also observed that for what seemed to be at the time, the greater good, lines may have been crossed.

Now imagine a changing of the guard in the political arena here, do you not think that there will be consequences for the incumbent?

Especially in a charged climate where the common man demands “justice”, where better to exact that retribution on those that put us here?

Do you believe that the incumbent will willing put themselves up as sacrificial lambs?

History has shown us how these situations end.

Elfred:

Richard Tan,

I think you have a big economic problem. Private and public housings are all tied up with autonomous spending. If you have a bubble in private properties, you’d have a bubble in public housing. Simple, because the land costs, for instance, will be the same to the seller: The gahmen.

When the gahmen sees Singapore land rises because 10000 Li Ka Shings bought up the private properties, what do you think will the cost of public homes?

See?

Simple. Which is why housing has become a big problem all these years, because people think like you. And yes, many people got rich, thinking they are very smart… but this transformed into unhappiness towards the government and a bubble. Because once global crisis break in a real scale, it’d be taxpayers who will have to sustain this level of land costs. Got it?

So how can you say that? For China, it’s even more hilarious… But that’s their problem. Unless they hire Elfred to solve their problem, that’s their problem. But to them, it’s similar. Private or public, it’s the same land, it’s the same government, same people buying and selling.

cat:

//Tim
What is your point?

ayama:

Yes affordable,HDB is truly affordable to someone’s wife who said $600,000 is peanuts,and their lot,but to someone who have to take out a 25 to 30 years loan can you say the same.

But then again why Do these people want to stay in HDB flat,when they can stay in their Mansions with gardens and swimming pools.

DavidSeeLeongKit:

>> PAP say:

– In 2000, although the Total Breakeven Cost of a HDB 5-rm new flat is around $120,000, we will not “help” first-time buyers (young couples) by selling to them at such a “cheap price”.

Instead, under our “market-based pricing policy”, we will set the Selling Price of the 5-rm NEW FLAT at $200,000 — which is $30,000 lower than the $230,000 prevailing Market Price of a similar 5-rm RESALE FLAT.

This way, HDB can then proudly say your new flat is “HEAVILY SUBSIDIZED with a so-called MARKET SUBSIDY of $30,000″.
To tell the truth, there is actually NO CASH SUBSIDY given at all — and the HDB is really making an OBSCENE PROFIT of $80,000 for each flat sold !!!

[ You have no choice but to accept that we need to suck the people's hard-earned monies through such cunningly-clever political trickery -- so as to pay for our obscenely-humongous million-dollar salaries/bonuses/other perks ]

[ Our definition of "affordability" is based on a loan period of 30 YEARS i.e. you will have to "work like dogs" for 30 YEARS to pay off the loan on your "obscenely-priced brick-and-cement pigeon hole". ]

>> S’POREANS say:

At the next General Elections, WE will stiffen our resolve to VOTE AGAINST THE PAP and on account of the $2m Minister Mah Bow Tan for such political trickery !!!

pramod:

It will take another 5 elections for someone to replace PAP.

Everybody taling about change but dont you see what they have done to singaproe over last 30.
How many fold the GDP has increased over last 30 years..How many.
Have you seen any terrorism activity in singapore?

Aint PAP providing you the most safest country today.

Property Prices:
After 1996 property prices kept falling for one yer and remained flat for almost 6 years. In last 8 years singapore has emerged as Asia’s financial HUB and most business friendly country in the world. There has to be some premium for such place and thats exactly getting reflected in property prices…

Compare the cost of construction or any other commodity in 1996 and today. All hv increased min 40% so what is so alarming if property prices have also grown 30% over last 10 years.

TW:

HDB is hearing…

I forecast the following to happen…

1) HDB realizes that 30 years to pay off the debt for HDB is just too much for a heartlander to shoulder. They dig deep and suggest a 50-year loan payment schedule.

2) To ensure that the interest rates stay affordable to Singaporeans, HDB decides to reduce the interest rate to 1%. Same goes for CPF to 0.85% interest. Stamp duty increases to 5%.

3) Realizing that people’s salaries have gone up, the government decides that the household limit to apply for HDB flats and loans be upped to SGD12,000. At the same time, the valuation of the government housing gets ‘updated’ again to reflect ‘actual’ value.

4) HDB spins off the estate management arm of HDB and offload it to the highest bidder. Takes one-off profit to ‘reward’ the employees for their ‘hardwork’.

5) Great reports start appearing on papers to showcase the good job done!

Nice gestures! Its all in a day’s worth of work!

Hellboy:

Eventually we all end up at the same place…judgment will be passed on our deeds eventually. It’s not too far for him. Just let him carry on his way for a bit more.

MaiHum:

Our govenment is good at deceiving it’s citizen by using benchmark at their advantage. Sometime, we were told we are in the first world but when something went wrong, the government uses the third world countries as comparison. But the government has forgotten that they are receiving a salary that is 5 times of their counterpart in the first world.

Bird Talk:

//MeeSiam on Tue, 15th Dec 2009 2:15 am
But HDB and property tax dept have to collect as much money as they could to cover losses/write off from our reserves.

After the next GE, GST will be increased from 7% to 10%. And again they will go on TV and show charts and statistic on GST rebate and bonus to low income earners for long donkey years. Rubbish stuff.

businessman:

someone said:
But if you only have 1 house then good luck to you. You will not profit by selling your house because you will also be paying more to get a house to stay unless you are downgrading to small unit. However, if the property price falls due to whatever reason, you people with 1 house will be in sh!t land because your house value will depreciate leaving you will a huge loan to service.
______

why price falls, we’ll be in trouble? the loan remains the same, the monthly repayment remains the same, when deflation occurs interest rates remain low so instalments remain the same, we just pay up the 30 year loan and be done with it, just as we planned initially when we bought the flat.

the only difference is that whoever is wise enough to buy when the price is lower, just takes 20 years to pay off the same blinking flat. so isn’t price dropping a good thing for everyone, even if i have already bought one?

please explain.

Fearful of ghosts:

@businessman on Tue, 15th Dec 2009 11:15 am

@L on Mon, 14th Dec 2009 4:35 pm

L is exactly right. The gain is illusory wealth. Imagine if you are Exxonmobil, do you think the oil price spike to nearly US$150 per barrel before the collapse is such a good think? In “good” times, you incurred big exploration budget or buy other discoveries at inflated price but when price of oil collapsed to US$40 per barrel, which one of these investments are economic of advantage to you?

But if oil prices were lower and you incurred exploration contracts or buy someone’s discoveries, wouldn’t you be smiling now that oil price is nearly US$70 per barrel??

As MeeSiam on Tue, 15th Dec 2009 2:15 am

Property hike hurts Singapore competitiveness as the general price level will go up and the cost of operation will follow.

YOU ARE STUCK WITH EMBEDDED COSTS STRUCTURE – just like housing, mortgage and loan remain the same and house value fallen and you got no escape root because it is your ACCOMODATION NOT INVESTMENT AND NOT BUSINESS EITHER.

Do you want housing prices to escalate costs competitive disadvantage so that you be put out of business?????

The key word is ‘EMBEDDED COSTS STRUCTURE” AND HISTORY DOES NOT WALK BACKWARD FOR YOU OR ME OR ANYBODY ELSE.

The higher the property price rise, the worse the deflation costs of adjustment will be in the future. GOOD TIMES DON’T LAST FOREVER – YOU ARE A BUSINESSMAN, SO YOU MUST KNOW LIKE ME.

The people who clamour for higher property prices are those who owns multiples of that or those who are already departed seeking “fictional hell money meant for the dead in the other world”

FPC:

with the current management in HDB, PAP will not build affordable homes. They have too much at stake.

after MBT took over, the duration of the loan for each home had increase from 5 to 30 years.

Don’t expect HDB to build anymore reasonably priced homes.

Fearful of ghosts:

@ businessman on Tue, 15th Dec 2009 2:44 pm

That is your imputation, NOT mine. My point is that manipulated prices DO A LOT OF DAMAGE TO THE COUNTRY AND ECONOMY, just

As MeeSiam on Tue, 15th Dec 2009 2:15 am SAID CORRECTLY

For Government to brag of high HDB prices is a positive outcome is FLAWED POLITICAL RHETORIC appeal to niavety of “feel good, feel rich” thinking – befitting of the deceased looking for hell money to be burnt for their use in the other world, metaphorically speaking.

Immigration, like housing is a hijacked political agenda of bubble economy. Those who sit back and reflect a moment will quickly uncover the fallacy of this hoax.

People trapped with expensive mortgage can NO LONGER LIVE SIMPLE LIFE because affordability kills the living budget which must cater for kids education, transport, food and medical etc. And when wages fall now, A LOT ARE STRUGGLING. You can’t deny that.

Fearful of ghosts:

@ businessman on Tue, 15th Dec 2009 4:51 pm

PRs got advantage over locals who if trapped with a top end purchase has his entire life buried into slavery. PRs just disappear and banks is left stuck with no-performing loans and a mess of legal knot of repossesion (if possible) in ex-parte proceedings.

That is why the Government SHOULD NOT have given PRs but extended PEPs with rights to citizenship applications. If they are committed here, they did be allowed to share the rights to public housing. IF THEY ARE NOT COMMITTED, then it is a risk to our banks and a burden to our citizens of escalating housing prices. FOREIGNERS CAN GAMBLE HIGH ROLLER STAKE IN HOUSING SPECULATION – win I take, LOSE I DISAPPEAR.

The misery is reserved for Singaporeans and the Government hyped it to be a virtue when it is a whore of financial trap in wait of escalating property prices.

BUT WILL THE MIW CONVERTED PRs INTO PEPs? I bet NOT. They are rich with multiple properties and it is in their own VESTED INTEREST TO ESCALATE PROPERTY VALUE UP AND TALK COCK AND SING SONG ABOUT RISING PROPERTY PRICES IS GOOD FOR SINGAPOREANS.

IT IS FARKING BULLSH@T!!

Seriously:

xl on Tue, 15th Dec 2009 9:04 pm

“Question is: What is their definition of “affordable”?

I will offer one suggestive answer which the Pappies will NOT be too happy to tell you of the game play of their invention.

It is a “moving feast of dishes” on your dining table cooked by your lovely wife or loving mother but which you can’t reach and over time eaten up progressively by your UNINVITED AND UNWELCOME GUESTS (invited in by Pappies). By the time your guests depart, there is crumbs left on your plate and some bones on the table.

However, unhappy, YOU CAN’T AFFORD AN ALTERNATIVE MEALS for your family IN KOPITIAM, one of your guests has taken over your job on a cheaper wage rate and eat your meals for free at the instigation of your political masters in power.

In other words, your affordaility is YOUR EVER SHRINKING MEALS AND MAYBE DISAPPEARING ALL TOGETHER even before you realise it.

BUT YOUR MORTGAGE REMAINS THE SAME DESPITE ALL THAT MISFORTUNE BEFALLEN UPON YOU. Hope you don’t be compelled to force your wife to take up a second job or your kids working in a fast food restaurant to supplement your family survival.

Is that a dishonest answer, xl???

KNN:

HDB will continue to screw up Singaporean life with the exorbitant flat price until PAP is voted out !!! MM should retire because he is no longer relevant to today society. If he is worry that his son cannot do PM job, then he should remove him before he bring shame to Lee family !!!