THE TEMASEK REVIEW

By Eugene Yeo, Consultant Editor

[In this classic five-part series, Eugene Yeo will examine the inherent weaknesses of the ruling PAP, its implications for Singapore and possible scenarios in the post-LKY era.]

One or two party system?

Singapore has enjoyed 50 years of stability, growth and prosperity under a virtual one-party dominated by the PAP. Is this the way to go for the future? Is it prudent for Singaporeans to put all their eggs into one basket? What if the PAP were to become corrupted one day, who is able to remove it from power legally?

Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong had already made his preference clear: Singapore needs a “strong” government because we have too few talents. A two or multi-party system will create political chaos undermining economic growth.

His father, MM Lee himself never believed in democracy and he was not shy to admit it. In a speech given at the Asahai Shimbun symposium in 1991, he expressed his doubts about democracy:

“Now if democracy will not work for the Russians, a white Christian people, can we assume that it will naturally work with Asians?”

He criticized democracy again in a speech a year later in Tokyo:

“With few exceptions, democracy has not brought good government to new developing countries…..As an Asian of Chinese cultural background, my values are for a government which is honest, effective and efficient.”

The whole system was put in place to ensure, maintain and perpetuate the political hegemony of the PAP with all the major institutions of the state being brought under its direct or indirect control.

Under such a system tipped heavily in favor to the ruling party, it is almost impossible for another political party to win at the polls.

The Lees’ views were not shared by many academics including the former top civil servant Mr Ngiam Tong Dow, who said in a recent interview with the Straits Times that Singapore would survive Lee provided he left the right legacy, which was to “open up politically and allow talent to be spread throughout our society so that an alternative leadership can emerge”.

Gilian Koh envisaged the political ideal as one which would ensure the survival of a country irrespective of which party was in power by citing the example of Taiwan which had experienced two changes in government over the last decade with no impact whatsoever on its economic growth.

Larry Diamonds, a leading American scholar in democracy studies argued that no matter how great the intellectual and administrative ability of a ruling elite, he said, rot and complacency would set in eventually without the discipline of competition.

It is highly unlikely that Singapore will open up politically as long as PM Lee remains in power even after MM Lee has passed on. With the present status quo, what is the most likely scenario in the post-LKY era?

Likely scenario in the post-LKY era

Some political analysts have predicted that without the elder Lee to hold the fort, factions will eventually emerge in the PAP leading to a repeat of 1962 when 13 PAP MPs broke away to form Barisan Sosialist.

This scenario is unlikely to happen because unlike the PAP old guards who are politically charged and motivated, the current batch of leaders in the PAP are mostly technocrats who have to be persuaded to join the PAP in the first place. They have little political ambitions or experience.

As I have explained in the previous series, the PAP is a largely monolithic party with power heavily centralized in the hands of a few elders who make sure that only those who are unlikely to challenge them are appointed to positions of power.

Though some have suggested that there is a faction in support of Senior Minister Goh in the cabinet, its influence had decreased after he handed over his position to the younger Lee in 2003 and replacement of his supporters like Yeo Ning Hong with a fresh slate of leaders who owe their allegiance to the Prime Minister.

Given his advanced age and the senior position he held in the cabinet now, it is almost impossible that Goh will leave the party or launch a coup from within. He is a 100% establishment figure aligned to the Lees.

The present cabinet ministers have little ambition to challenge or replace Lee and are likely to toe the line. When Health Minister Khaw Boon Wah was asked by a resident during a dialogue session at Kovan Community Center whether he had any ambitions to become the Prime Minister, he blurted out immediately: “What? You want me to get into trouble?”

The PAP is not a political party. The ministers do not have a power base of their own. They are simply “mandarins” appointed by the “Emperor” to take charge of certain departments in his “empire”. The media, police, treasury, grassroots organizations and whatever else is left are all firmly controlled by the “Emperor”. No matter how talented a “mandarin” is, he has to kowtow to the “Emperor” whenever he is in his presence.

Now that we have dismissed the probability of an internal split with the PAP, it leaves us with only one likely scenario: continuation of the status quo.

In a post-LKY era, Singapore will still be closed politically under the conservative PM Lee. With the population thoroughly depoliticized, the opposition weak and divided, and the electoral system being manipulated to guarantee a PAP victory, the PAP can be expected to breeze through the next 2 elections. The opposition will not make any headway other than perhaps winning a few token more seats which is already “reserved” for them anyway by the “reforms” initiated by Lee which guarantees 18 non-PAP voices in Parliament.

Implications for Singapore

What then are the implications for Singapore in the post-LKY era? Without any political challenge, the PAP is likely to continue ruling the country with a blank cheque like before. There will be few changes in the key economic policies and strategies.

In the aftermath of the global recession, Singapore is likely to bounce back quickly. Our GDP growth may return to the highs of previous years between 6 to 8 per cent, but it may subsequently drop to below 5% as the gap between us and other developing countries like China and India narrows.

Singapore’s economy is popped up largely by depressing the wages of the labor force rather than increasing productivity. The relentless influx of cheap, foreign labor may help to mask the underlying problem for a while, but after sometime, it will inevitably lead to diminishing returns eventually as companies relocate to other destinations like Vietnam, Thailand and Malaysia.

Singapore’s economy is now in a transition phase. We are moving away from labor-intensive industries like manufacturing and electronics to new sectors of growth in the future like Life Sciences, IT, casinos and nanotechnology. Whether these industries will turn out to be winners remain to be seen.

The government is expanding across Asia either by collaborating in long-term projects like the Tianjin Eco-city with China or buying stakes in major companies through its two sovereign wealth funds – GIC and Temasek. Its coffers are likely to grow assuming it doesn’t squander them away in risky ill-timed investments.

Ordinary Singaporeans may have to face a more challenging and uncertain future ahead as cost of living, especially that of housing, has far outstripped their wages and competing with foreigners for everything from jobs, houses to primary one registration places. Life is likely to become more and more stressful as one struggles to keep oneself solvent while saving enough for retirement.

The top 5% of the earners will see their wealth grow with the booming economy. The middle class will stagnate and even struggle while the bottom 20% of the income group may have to depend on state handouts either completely or partially to feed themselves.

As life become tougher, couples are less inclined to start a family thereby exacerbating the low fertility rate. The government will have no choice but to continue to import large number of foreigners to keep the economy competitive to avoid following the footsteps of Japan which is plagued by an aging population and low GDP growth.

The number of foreigners, PRs and new citizens may one day exceed that of native Singaporeans who will feel increasingly alienated and marginalized in their own lands of birth. Dissatisfaction, disgruntlement and resentment against the PAP will rise to new heights, but will remain suppressed at the subterranean level because of draconian laws put in place to stifle political dissent.

The PAP will have no problems maintaining their political dominance much to the chagrin of the population, especially the restive young who wants to have more say in the running of the country. This disconcordant state where the state is unable to meet the aspirations of the people who are unable to remove an unpopular government legally will lead to a general sclerosis of society creating a disconnected class of citizens whose only aim in life is to earn enough money to leave the country for they have completely lost interest and love for their motherland.

Singapore will become a half-country, half-corporate without a soul or identity just like its tourist icon - the “Merlion” which is neither fish or lion. It will be a playground for the ruling elite and wealthy foreigners and a living hell for those who are left behind. To quote an infamous remark of Wee Shu Min: “If you are not good enough, life will kick you in the balls. That’s how just things go (in Singapore).”

We are already seeing signs of this dreadful scenario right now in the present. Most Singaporeans are politically apathetic – they simply do not care what happen to their nation. The young has no sense of belonging – one third of them want to emigrate to greener pastures elsewhere. The ruling elite is out of touch with the people and they don’t realize it because the state media keep spinning only the untruths which they want to hear and not the bitter reality on the ground. Singapore will still top the international charts for the best institutions, infrastructure, education and economic stability, but deep down inside, the fabric which binds the nation together is crumbling apart for without the people, our most important asset, Singapore will never go far.

The key for Singapore’s future really lies on the shoulders of one man – the 4th Prime Minister of Singapore. Will he be Singapore’s Chiang Ching Kuo or Kim Jong IL?

In part 5 of my article, I shall elucidate the necessary political reforms that Singapore’s next leader must undertake at both the party and state level to reverse the process of national ossification which has already set in.

Other articles in the series:

>> Part 1: An ossified internal structure

>> Part 2: A disjointed party support base

>> Part 3: Lack of leaders in a team of technocrats

Other articles by Eugene Yeo:

>> An analysis of the UBS study (Part 1): Singapore has the lowest wages and domestic purchasing power among Asian Tigers

>> An analysis of the UBS study (Part3): Paupers in a first world economy

>> Singapore’s limits: An unthinking and unquestioning citizenry

>> Singapore’s limits: The curse of the GDP

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